A new report from DOE’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory discusses three possible pathways to cost-effective vehicle electrification: 1) improving battery life, 2) reducing battery cost, and 3) connecting to the grid more directly. The report concludes that using current battery cost and life, PHEVs and EVs are not cost-effective for many different configurations. PHEVs with 10, 20, or 40 miles of electric range, with low or high electric power, with or without battery replacement, and with or without opportunity charging are all less cost-effective than conventional vehicles and HEVs. NREL says that EVs' cost-effectiveness improves with battery replacement and opportunity charging, but not enough to make them cost-effective.
NREL says that one approach with current battery technology could be cost-effective. That is, if an acceptable method for plugging in while traveling along the roadway can be devised, it may provide a cost-effective pathway to vehicle electrification. This approach benefits from the low electric fuel cost of a large battery without the high cost, cycling wear, weight, and efficiency loss. NREL states that this pathway requires infrastructure, but only along a small fraction of heavily traveled roadways to gain the same gasoline saving benefits as battery PHEVs. The report additionally indicates that significant battery improvements can also provide cost-effective pathways to vehicle electrification. If today's battery energy cost component goes down from $700/kWh to $300/kWh, PHEVs start becoming cost-effective. PHEVs also become cost-effective if battery life improves by a factor of 10.
For a copy of the report, click here.